Iacone, Fabrizio orcid.org/0000-0002-2681-9036, Martin, Stephen, Siciliani, Luigi orcid.org/0000-0003-1739-7289 et al. (1 more author) (2017) Modelling the Dynamics of a Public Health Care System:Evidence from Time-Series Data. Discussion Paper. CHE Research Paper . Centre for Health Economics, University of York , York, UK.
Abstract
The English National Health Service was established in 1948, and has therefore yielded some long time series data on health system performance. Waiting times for inpatient care have been a persistent cause of policy concern since the creation of the NHS. This paper develops a theoretical model of the dynamic interaction between key indicators of health system performance. It then investigates empirically the relationship between hospital activity, waiting times and population characteristics using aggregate time-series data for the NHS over the period 1952-2005. Structural Vector Auto-Regression suggests that in the long run: a) higher activity is associated with lower waiting times (elasticity = -0.9%); b) a higher proportion of old population is associated with higher waiting times (elasticity = 1.6%). In the short run, higher lagged waiting time leads to higher activity (elasticity = 0.2%). We also find that shocks in waiting times are countered by higher activity, so the effect is only temporary, while shocks in activity have a permanent effect. We conclude that policies to reduce waiting times should focus on initiatives that increase hospital activity.
Metadata
Item Type: | Monograph |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Keywords: | Waiting times,Dynamics,Vector Auto-Regression |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Social Sciences (York) > Economics and Related Studies (York) The University of York > Faculty of Social Sciences (York) > Centre for Health Economics (York) The University of York > Faculty of Social Sciences (York) > Centre for Health Economics (York) > CHE Research Papers (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 20 Dec 2018 16:30 |
Last Modified: | 16 Oct 2024 11:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Centre for Health Economics, University of York |
Series Name: | CHE Research Paper |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:140286 |