Taylor, CM, Fink, AH, Klein, C et al. (4 more authors) (2018) Earlier seasonal onset of intense Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Congo Basin since 1999. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (24). pp. 13458-13467. ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) produce some of the most intense rainfall on the planet, and their response to climate variability and change is rather uncertain. Under global warming, increased water vapour is expected to intensify the most extreme rain events and enhance flood frequency. However, MCS dynamics are also sensitive to other atmospheric variables, most notably, wind shear. Here we build on a recent study showing strong MCS intensification in the African Sahel, and examine evidence of similar trends elsewhere in tropical Africa. Using satellite data, we find a remarkable increase post‐1999 in intense MCS frequency over the Congo Basin during the month of February. This earlier onset of the spring rainy season has been accompanied by strong increases in the February meridional temperature gradient and associated wind shear. This supports the hypothesis that contrasts in warming across the continent can drive important decadal‐scale trends in storm intensity.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | ©2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | MCSs; Africa; extreme storms |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Royal Society No External Reference NERC NE/M020126/1 Met Office Not Known Met Office L4161 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 12 Dec 2018 10:46 |
Last Modified: | 18 Feb 2019 14:29 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2018GL080516 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:139906 |
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