Pfeiffer, D, Wegmann, J and Schafran, A orcid.org/0000-0003-1990-925X (2020) Exploring the Relationship Between Housing Downturns and Partisan Elections: Neighborhood-Level Evidence from Maricopa County, Arizona. Urban Affairs Review, 56 (6). pp. 1630-1658. ISSN 1078-0874
Abstract
An understudied outcome of foreclosure crises is how their aftershocks affect partisan elections. Two hypotheses are that partisan shifts may occur in neighborhoods with concentrated foreclosures because of (1) declines in turnout among liberal leaning voters or (2) swells of anti-incumbency among all voters. This research explores these hypotheses in Maricopa County, Arizona, by using econometric modeling to uncover associations among neighborhood foreclosures, voter turnout, and changes in the Republican vote share between the 2006 and the 2010 Arizona gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. Our results show evidence of (1) anti-incumbent voting behavior and more liberal shifts among neighborhoods harder hit by foreclosures and (2) conservative shifts in neighborhoods experiencing African-American and Latinx population growth. These findings are suggestive of a link between neighborhood housing market distress and neighborhood partisan shifts, which in aggregate may shape state and national policymaking and future neighborhood conditions.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2019, The Author(s). This is an author produced version of a paper published in Urban Affairs Review. Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications. |
Keywords: | housing; foreclosures; voting; partisanship |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > SOG: Cities & Social Justice (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 04 Dec 2018 14:21 |
Last Modified: | 15 Dec 2020 10:44 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | SAGE Publications |
Identification Number: | 10.1177/1078087418824748 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:139530 |