Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Abstract

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

Metadata

Item Type:	Article
Authors/Creators:	Asseng, S Martre, P Maiorano, A Rötter, RP O’Leary, GJ Fitzgerald, GJ Girousse, C Motzo, R Giunta, F Babar, MA Reynolds, MP Kheir, AMS Thorburn, PJ Waha, K Ruane, AC Aggarwal, PK Ahmed, M Balkovič, J Basso, B Biernath, C Bindi, M Cammarano, D Challinor, AJ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8551-6617 De Sanctis, G Dumont, B Eyshi Rezaei, E Fereres, E Ferrise, R Garcia-Vila, M Gayler, S Gao, Y Horan, H Hoogenboom, G Izaurralde, RC Jabloun, M Jones, CD Kassie, BT Kersebaum, KC Klein, C Koehler, AK https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1059-8056 Liu, B Minoli, S Montesino San Martin, M Müller, C Naresh Kumar, S Nendel, C Olesen, JE Palosuo, T Porter, JR Priesack, E Ripoche, D Semenov, MA Stöckle, C Stratonovitch, P Streck, T Supit, I Tao, F Van der Velde, M Wallach, D Wang, E Webber, H Wolf, J Xiao, L Zhang, Z Zhao, Z Zhu, Y Ewert, F
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information:	© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Asseng, S, Martre, P, Maiorano, A et al. (63 more authors) (2019) Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global Change Biology, 25 (1). pp. 155-173. ISSN 1354-1013, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14481. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
Keywords:	climate change adaptation; climate change impact; food security; grain protein; wheat
Dates:	Published: January 2019 Published (online): 22 November 2018 Accepted: 6 September 2018
Institution:	The University of Leeds
Academic Units:	The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds)
Depositing User:	Symplectic Publications
Date Deposited:	14 Nov 2018 14:52
Last Modified:	28 Jan 2021 15:31
Status:	Published
Publisher:	Wiley
Identification Number:	10.1111/gcb.14481
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID):	oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:138634

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Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

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