Wardman, M, Hatfield, A, Shires, J orcid.org/0000-0002-5995-3215 et al. (1 more author) (2019) The Sensitivity of Rail Demand to Variations in Motoring Costs: Findings from a Comparison of Methods. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 119. pp. 181-199. ISSN 0965-8564
Abstract
There is not a great deal of reliable summary evidence on how variations in motoring costs impact on the demand for rail travel, in contrast with evidence on other key demand parameters. In part this is because cross-elasticities are difficult to estimate whilst we must recognise that they are strongly dependent upon relevant market shares. In addition, the combination of car being the main competitor to rail and anticipated significant reductions in car costs over time mean that this is an important area for research. Given the historic challenges of estimating robust crosselasticities, the research reported here used a variety of methods based upon purpose collected survey data, large data sets of tickets sales and National Travel Survey data, major reviews of existing evidence, and deducing crosselasticities using economic theory. The findings provide a significant contribution to understanding in this area. There is a high degree of similarity in the fuel price cross-elasticities obtain by the different methods on average, although this masks variations across contexts. The cross-elasticities tend to be relatively small, which is in line with the survey evidence that not all motorists consider even fuel costs or are aware of changes in them. Nonetheless, crosselasticities can be large where rail is in a weak competitive position. Our findings challenge current conventions in the railway industry in Great Britain, as contained in the longstanding Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH), both in terms of the magnitude of cross-elasticities used and their variation across routes. Our preference is to deduce fuel price cross-elasticities from car own-price elasticities using diversion factors and relative demand of car and rail. This method is able to produce context specific cross-elasticities, reflecting the inherent variability of such parameters, whilst the econometric analysis and other evidence support the use of this approach. The method can be easily extended to cover parking costs, which we here did to provide new guidance for PDFH, and car journey times. We recommend means by which the method can be enhanced.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | fuel price cross elasticity; rail demand; diversion factors |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) > ITS: Economics and Discrete Choice (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 09 Oct 2018 14:50 |
Last Modified: | 29 Nov 2019 01:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.tra.2018.09.023 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:136882 |
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Filename: REVISED FUEL COSTS JOURNAL PAPER submitted Septt2018.pdf
Licence: CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0