Nolan, Connor, Overpeck, Jonathan T., Allen, Judy R. M. et al. (39 more authors) (2018) Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Science. pp. 920-923. ISSN 0036-8075
Abstract
Concern is growing that global climate change will have widespread impact on the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, but future impacts are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. All available data, including records of past ecological change, need to be utilized to assess the range of potential future outcomes. Here we show that pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was of comparable magnitude to climatic change projected to occur in the next 100 to 150 years under high-emission scenarios. We used data from 596 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in global terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period, and to project the magnitude of ecosystem transformations under different emission scenarios in the future. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change, and suggest that without major reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere (i.e., in line with those targeted in the 2015 Paris Agreement), most terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Environment and Geography (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 31 Aug 2018 09:10 |
Last Modified: | 06 Feb 2025 00:08 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan5360 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1126/science.aan5360 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:135148 |
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