Conibear, L orcid.org/0000-0003-2801-8862, Butt, EW, Knote, C et al. (2 more authors) (2018) Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India. GeoHealth, 2 (7). pp. 196-211. ISSN 2471-1403
Abstract
Exposure to high concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) is a leading risk factor for public health in India causing a large burden of disease. Business‐as‐usual economic and industrial growth in India is predicted to increase emissions, worsen air quality, and increase the associated disease burden in future decades. Here we use a high‐resolution online‐coupled model to estimate the impacts of different air pollution control pathways on ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations and human health in India. We find that with no change in emissions, the disease burden from exposure to ambient PM₂.₅ in 2050 will increase by 75% relative to 2015, due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution. We estimate that the International Energy Agencies New Policy Scenario (NPS) and Clean Air Scenario (CAS) in 2050 can reduce ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations below 2015 levels by 9% and 68%, respectively, offsetting 61,000 and 610,000 premature mortalities a year, which is 9% and 91% of the projected increase in premature mortalities due to population growth and aging. Throughout India, the CAS stands out as the most effective scenario to reduce ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations and the associated disease burden, reducing the 2050 mortality rate per 100,000 below 2015 control levels by 15%. However, even under such stringent emission control policies, population growth and aging results in premature mortality estimates from exposure to particulate air pollution to increase by 7% compared to 2015, highlighting the challenge facing efforts to improve public health in India.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018, The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
Keywords: | ambient air pollution; health risk; India; disease burden; air pollution control pathways; emission scenarios |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Chemical & Process Engineering (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 05 Jul 2018 10:44 |
Last Modified: | 25 Jun 2023 21:25 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2018GH000139 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:132934 |