Dolan, AM orcid.org/0000-0002-9585-9648, de Boer, B, Bernales, J et al. (2 more authors) (2018) High Climate Model Dependency of Pliocene Antarctic Ice-Sheet Predictions. Nature Communications, 9. 2799. ISSN 2041-1723
Abstract
The mid-Pliocene warm period provides a natural laboratory to investigate the long-term response of the Earth’s ice-sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. Proxy data suggest that during the warm Pliocene, portions of the Antarctic ice-sheets, including West Antarctica could have been lost. Ice-sheet modelling forced by Pliocene climate model outputs is an essential way to improve our understanding of ice-sheets during the Pliocene. However, uncertainty exists regarding the degree to which results are model-dependent. Using climatological forcing from an international climate modelling intercomparison project, we demonstrate the high dependency of Antarctic ice-sheet volume predictions on the climate model-based forcing used. In addition, the collapse of the vulnerable marine basins of Antarctica is dependent on the ice-sheet model used. These results demonstrate that great caution is required in order to avoid making unsound statements about the nature of the Pliocene Antarctic ice-sheet based on model results that do not account for structural uncertainty in both the climate and ice sheet models.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2018 This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 15 Jun 2018 11:05 |
Last Modified: | 18 Dec 2018 03:31 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Nature |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41467-018-05179-4 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:131951 |