Master of none: Trump, Jerusalem, and the prospects of Israeli-Palestinian peace

Although the Trump administration claims to be seeking ‘the ultimate deal’ to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the effective attainment of this goal is subordinate to both domestic political concerns and wider Middle East foreign policy calculations. Using the shared antipathy between Israel and the Arab world towards Iran to reach an agreement is sound in principle but is being applied in such a way as to make sustainable Israeli-Palestinian peace through a two-state solution even more unlikely. Trump has sided wholly with the right-wing Israeli government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu and has shown little regard for Palestinian needs, adopting an incoherent and unbalanced mediation strategy centred on power rather than principles. Regional partners such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia are applying pressure to the Palestinians with caution, given the continued relevance of Jerusalem to their populations. Any future peace deal will have to address Palestinian concerns in tandem with Israeli concerns, and show a level of understanding of Palestinian needs yet to be evinced. Meanwhile, Trump’s intervention in the conflict is setting into motion trends in Israeli and Palestinian society which may finally render the two-state solution dead and buried.