Bruno Soares, M, Daly, M and Dessai, S orcid.org/0000-0002-7879-9364 (2018) Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision‐making. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 9 (4). e523. ISSN 1757-7780
Abstract
Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) can support decision‐making and thus help society cope with and prepare for climate variability and change. The demand for understanding the value and benefits of using SCF in decision‐making processes can be associated with different logics. Two of these would be the need to justify public and private investment in the provision of SCF and demonstrating the gains and benefits of using SCF in specific decision‐making contexts. This paper reviews the main factors influencing how SCF is (or can be) valued in supporting decision‐making and the main methods and metrics currently used to perform such valuations. Our review results in four key findings: (a) there is a current emphasis on economic ex ante studies and the quantification of SCF value; (b) there are fundamental differences in how the value of SCF is defined and estimated across methods and approaches; (c) most valuation methods are unable to capture the differential benefits and risks of using SCF across spatiotemporal scales and groups; and (d) there is limited involvement of the decision‐makers in the valuation process. The paper concludes by providing some guiding principles towards more effective valuations of SCF, notably the need for a wider diversity and integration of methodological approaches. These should particularly embrace ex‐post, qualitative, and participatory approaches which allow co‐evaluation with decision‐makers so that more comprehensive and equitable SCF valuations can be developed in future.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | assessing value of climate information; climate services; seasonal climate forecasts; valuation methods; value of climate information for decision‐making |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Sustainability Research Institute (SRI) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 30 May 2018 16:00 |
Last Modified: | 25 Jun 2023 21:22 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/wcc.523 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:131371 |
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