Nkiaka, E, Nawaz, R and Lovett, JC orcid.org/0000-0002-5839-3770 (2018) Assessing the reliability and uncertainties of projected changes in precipitation and temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models over the Lake Chad basin. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (14). pp. 5136-5152. ISSN 0899-8418
Abstract
Lake Chad lost more than 80% of its surface area over the past decades as a result of environmental change and climate variability. It is not yet known how climate change will affect water resources availability in the basin over the coming decades. In this study, the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) technique was used to evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating present‐day precipitation and temperature (1980–2005), and to quantify the uncertainties in future projections (2050–2075) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Lake Chad basin (LCB). Analyses were carried out at both annual and seasonal timescales. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulated precipitation better than temperature in the study area. Although the models were able to simulate the annual precipitation cycle in the basin, most models overestimated precipitation during the dry season and underestimated it during the monsoon season. Future annual basin precipitation is projected to increase by 2.5 and 5%, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario by the middle of the century by most of the models and most of the model projections are within the REA uncertainty range. Despite the increase in projected annual precipitation in the basin, most models project a decrease in monsoon precipitation under both RCPs. Although the uncertainty range for future precipitation projections for most models lie within the range of natural climate variability, additional analysis is needed for results to be useful for any future planning in the study area.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Nkiaka E, Nawaz R, Lovett JC. Assessing the reliability and uncertainties of projected changes in precipitation and temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models over the Lake Chad basin. Int J Climatol. 2018;1–17, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5717. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | climate change; climate projections; CMIP5; Lake Chad basin; reliability ensemble averaging; simple model averaging; uncertainty quantification |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Sustainability Research Institute (SRI) (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Ecology & Global Change (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 11 May 2018 13:45 |
Last Modified: | 09 Aug 2019 00:43 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/joc.5717 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:130681 |