Finney, DL orcid.org/0000-0002-3334-6935, Doherty, RM, Wild, O et al. (3 more authors)
(2018)
A projected decrease in lightning under climate change.
Nature Climate Change, 8 (3).
pp. 210-213.
ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach, and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Nature Climate Change. The final authenticated version is available online at: https:// doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6 |
Keywords: | Atmospheric chemistry; Atmospheric science; Climate and Earth science modelling |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > National Centre for Atmos Science (NCAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 07 Feb 2018 13:55 |
Last Modified: | 12 Aug 2018 00:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Nature |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:127172 |