Grimm, S.E., Stevens, J.W. orcid.org/0000-0002-9867-7209 and Dixon, S. (2018) Estimating future health technology diffusion using expert beliefs calibrated to an established diffusion model. Value in Health, 21 (8). pp. 944-950. ISSN 1098-3015
Abstract
Objectives: Estimates of future health technology diffusion, or future uptake over time, are a requirement for different analyses performed within health technology assessments. Methods for obtaining such estimates include constant uptake estimates based on expert opinion or analogous technologies, and extrapolation from initial data points using parametric curves – but remain divorced from established diffusion theory and modelling. We propose an approach to obtaining diffusion estimates using experts’ beliefs calibrated to an established diffusion model to address this methodological gap.
Methods: We performed an elicitation of experts’ beliefs on future diffusion of a new preterm birth screening illustrative case study technology. The elicited quantities were chosen such that they could be calibrated to yield the parameters of the Bass model of new product growth, which was chosen based on a review of the diffusion literature.
Results: With the elicitation of only three quantities per diffusion curve, our approach enabled us to quantify uncertainty about diffusion of the new technology in different scenarios. Pooled results showed that the attainable number of adoptions was predicted to be relatively low compared with what was thought possible. Further research evidence improved the attainable number of adoptions only slightly but resulted in greater speed of diffusion.
Conclusions: The proposed approach of eliciting experts’ beliefs about diffusion and informing the Bass model has the potential to fill the methodological gap evident in value of implementation and research, as well as budget impact and some cost-effectiveness analyses.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an author produced version of a paper subsequently published in Value in Health. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. Article available under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-ND licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) |
Keywords: | budget impact analysis; cost effectiveness; diffusion of innovations; elicitation; value of information |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield) > ScHARR - Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 26 Jan 2018 15:07 |
Last Modified: | 11 Nov 2020 17:50 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.jval.2018.01.010 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:126684 |
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