Runway Safety Analysis for 2015 to 2017

Reducing the risk of runway incursions or excursions in order to meet future aviation growth can be achieved two fold: by preventing and by limiting the level of damage. In order to reach an As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) level of runway safety is insight in the cost of runway safety events as well as in their mitigations required. Aircraft and Aerodrome operators could get this insight by combining the likelihood of future occurrences with their cumulative costs. On top of already existing prevention measures, new additional restrictions could face financial limits as indicated by the law of diminishing returns. That implies that either accepting the risk ‘as is’ and thus accepting higher levels of runway incursions and excursions or find cost-effective mitigations postponing the financial limits to safety. ; thus a cost-benefit approach. A method of estimating the costs of runway related an occurrence has recently been published. Combining this method with a model capable of predicting the likelihood of runway incursions or excursions tailor-made per aircraft or aerodrome operator and their mitigations opens the possibility of a cost benefit approach. Runway incidents and accidents in the period 2015-2017 are analyzed and their costs estimated at $ 11 Billion, corrected for purchasing power. Veer-offs are shown to be by far the most costly events, followed by overruns. Runway incursion analysis has showed to be the least cost event compared with the two aforementioned events. The number and severity of veer-offs are expected to rise. The costs of future veer-offs should be weighed against the costs of prevention and the cost of reducing the levels of damage. Damage reduction is the main objective of the runway strip (RESA for overruns). It appears that the level of damage and costs rise considerably when a runway strip or RESA is inadequate or inappropriate for the moment (e.g. bearing strength). A cost driven, flexible risk based system is recommended in order to reduce the risks and costs associated with runway excursions with emphasis on veer-offs and overruns. Concrete actions include a three step approach for aircraft and aerodrome operators.