Crols, T orcid.org/0000-0002-9379-7770, Vanderhaegen, S, Canters, F et al. (4 more authors) (2017) Downdating high-resolution population density maps using sealed surface cover time series. Landscape and Urban Planning, 160. pp. 96-106. ISSN 0169-2046
Abstract
Many countries in Europe and North America see their natural and agricultural landscapes being replaced by a fragmented, sprawled landscape. Spatially detailed modelling of changes in land use, population and transport could help to forecast the impact of scenarios aimed at mitigating the process of urban sprawl. A common problem with land-use change models however, is the lack of historical data for proper model calibration. In this paper we describe an approach for developing historical population density maps by downdating a recent high-resolution population density raster, using a time series of sealed surface data and historical census data as an input. In the proposed approach, we hypothesise a local relationship between increasing population densities and increasing sealed surface fraction estimates, the latter obtained from remote sensing imagery. We apply the method to Flanders, Belgium, a region where population growth and improved transport networks led to a diffuse urban expansion, with ribbon development along many roads and a strong fragmentation of open space. The resulting population and sealed surface maps provide interesting data on the urban sprawl phenomenon in the past decades. By computing a densification index we observe that most urban areas witness a recent population density increase while in several rural areas the built-up area per inhabitant is still growing. The downdated time series of population maps obtained in this study will be used to set up a historical calibration for an activity-based cellular automata model for Flanders and Brussels which, among other data, needs high-resolution population maps.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2016 Elsevier B.V. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Landscape and Urban Planning. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Urban sprawlPopulation growthSealed surfacesLand-use modellingHistorical calibrationDensification |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 16 Nov 2017 13:30 |
Last Modified: | 08 Jul 2018 00:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.12.009 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:124179 |