Adepeju, MO orcid.org/0000-0002-9006-4934 and Cheng, T (2017) Determining the optimal spatial scan of Prospective space-time scan statistics (PSTSS) for crime hotspot prediction. In: 25th GIS Research UK Conference (GISRUK 2017). GISRUK 2017, 18-21 Apr 2017, Manchester, UK. Geographical Information Science Research UK
Abstract
The input value for the maximum spatial scan extent (K) of a prospective space-time scan statistical (PSTSS) technique is one important parameter that ensures accurate detection of the predictive hotspot of a geographical point events. Currently, there is no general consensus on how to determine the optimal value of K that maximises the predictive accuracy, especially in crime hotspot prediction. To address this issue, this study proposes a strategy in which different values of K are used to generate accuracy profiles that can be compared to determine optimal value of K. A case study presented shows that the best accuracy is obtained at K=250m, which is equivalent to the spatial aggregation of the crime dataset used. It is contended that this strategy could be extended to other geographical surveillance tasks.
Metadata
Item Type: | Proceedings Paper |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | This is an author produced version of a paper presented at GISRUK 2017 |
Keywords: | Space-time, Crime, Hotspot prediction, Spatial scan extent, predictive accuracy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 16 Nov 2017 17:21 |
Last Modified: | 16 Nov 2017 20:49 |
Published Version: | http://huckg.is/gisruk2017/GISRUK_2017_paper_33.pd... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Geographical Information Science Research UK |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:124148 |