Beecham, R orcid.org/0000-0001-8563-7251, Slingsby, A and Brunsdon, C (2018) Locally-varying explanations behind the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union. JOSIS; Special Feature on 25th GIS Research UK (GISRUK) conference, 16. pp. 117-136. ISSN 1948-660X
Abstract
Explanations behind area-based (Local Authority-level) voting preference in the 2016 referendum on membership of the European Union are explored using aggregate-level data. Developing local models, special attention is paid to whether variables explain the vote equally well across the country. Variables describing the post-industrial and economic “successfulness” of Local Authorities most strongly discriminate variation in the vote. To a lesser extent this is the case for variables linked to “metropolitan” and “big city” contexts, which assist the Remain vote, those that distinguish more traditional and “nativist” values, assisting Leave, and those loosely describing material outcomes, again reinforcing Leave. Whilst variables describing economic competitiveness co-vary with voting preference equally well across the country, the importance of secondary variables—those distinguishing metropolitan settings, values and outcomes—does vary by region. For certain variables and in certain areas, the direction of effect on voting preference reverses. For example, whilst levels of European Union migration mostly assist the Remain vote, in parts of the country the opposite effect is observed.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) by the author(s) Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) |
Keywords: | European Union; referendum; multi-level modelling; geographically-weighted statistics; LASSO; area-based analysis |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 13 Nov 2017 15:26 |
Last Modified: | 23 Jun 2023 22:39 |
Published Version: | http://www.josis.org/index.php/josis/article/view/... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | University of Maine |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:123919 |