Gadian, AM orcid.org/0000-0001-9890-403X, Blyth, AM orcid.org/0000-0001-7115-2587, Bruyere, CL et al. (8 more authors) (2018) A case study of possible future summer convective precipitation over the UK and Europe from a regional climate projection. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (5). pp. 2314-2324. ISSN 0899-8418
Abstract
Climate change caused by green house gas emissions is now following the trend of rapid warming consistent with a RCP8.5 forcing. Climate models are still unable to represent the mesoscale convective processes that occur at resolutions ∼O(3 km) and are not capable of resolving precipitation patterns in time and space with sufficient accuracy to represent convection. In this article, the UK Met Office precipitation observations are compared with the simulations for the period 1990–1995 followed by a simulation of a near‐future period 2031–2036 for a regional nested weather model. The convection‐permitting model, resolution ∼O(3 km), provides a good correspondence to the observational precipitation data and demonstrates the importance of explicit convection for future summer precipitation estimates. The UK summer precipitation is reduced slightly (∼10%) for 2031–2036 and there is no evidence of an increase in the peak maximum hourly precipitation magnitude. A similar pattern is observed over the whole European inner model domain. The results using the Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization scheme at a resolution ∼O(12 km) in the outer domain increase summer precipitation by ∼10% for the UK. The average precipitation rate per event increases, dry periods extend and wet periods shorten. As part of the change, 10‐m winds of <3 m s⁻¹ become more common – a scenario that would impact on power generation from wind turbines through calmer conditions and cause more frequent pollution episodes.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2017 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
Keywords: | Convection; Precipitation; Regional Climate |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > National Centre for Atmos Science (NCAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 09 Nov 2017 14:06 |
Last Modified: | 23 Jun 2023 22:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/joc.5336 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:123635 |
Download
Filename: Gadian_et_al-2018-International_Journal_of_Climatology.pdf
Licence: CC-BY 4.0