THE RATE OF BINARY BLACK HOLE MERGERS INFERRED FROM ADVANCED LIGO OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING GW150914

Abstract

A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identi fi ed in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To asse ss the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged con fi gurations over a period of 39 days around the time of t he signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate ( FAR ) of < ́ -- 4.9 10 yr 61 , yielding a p -value for GW150914 of < ́ - 210 7 . Parameter estimation follo w-up on this trigger identi fi es its source as a binary black hole ( BBH ) merger with component masses ( )( )  = - + - + mm M ,36,29 12 4 5 4 4 at redshift = - + z 0.09 0.04 0.03 ( median and 90% credible range ) . Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between – -- 2 53 Gpc yr 31 ( comoving frame ) . Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncerta inty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from – -- 13 600 Gpc yr 31 depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimat es fall in the conservative range – -- 2 600 Gpc yr 31 .

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Authors/Creators:	Abbott, BP Abbott, R Abbott, TD Abernathy, MR Acernese, F Ackley, K Adams, C Adams, T Addesso, P Adhikari, RX Adya, VB Affeldt, C Agathos, M Agatsuma, K Aggarwal, N Aguiar, OD Aiello, L Ain, A Ajith, P Allen, B Allocca, A Altin, PA Anderson, SB Anderson, WG Arai, K Araya, MC Arceneaux, CC Areeda, JS Arnaud, N Arun, KG Ascenzi, S Ashton, G Ast, M Aston, SM Astone, P Aufmuth, P Aulbert, C Babak, S Bacon, P Bader, MKM Baker, PT Baldaccini, F Ballardin, G Ballmer, SW Barayoga, JC Barclay, SE Barish, BC Barker, D Barone, F Barr, B Barsotti, L Barsuglia, M Barta, D Bartlett, J Bartos, I Bassiri, R Basti, A Batch, JC Baune, C Bavigadda, V Bazzan, M Behnke, B Bejger, M Bell, AS Bell, CJ Berger, BK Bergman, J Bergmann, G Berry, CPL Bersanetti, D Bertolini, A Betzwieser, J Bhagwat, S Bhandare, R Bilenko, IA Billingsley, G Birch, J Birney, R Biscans, S Bisht, A Bitossi, M Biwer, C Bizouard, MA Blackburn, JK Blair, CD Blair, DG Blair, RM Bloemen, S Bock, O Bodiya, TP Boer, M Bogaert, G Bogan, C Bohe, A Bojtos, P Bond, C Bondu, F Bonnand, R Boom, BA Bork, R Boschi, V Bose, S Bouffanais, Y Bozzi, A Bradaschia, C Brady, PR Braginsky, VB Branchesi, M Brau, JE Briant, T Brillet, A Brinkmann, M Brisson, V Brockill, P Brooks, AF Brown, DA Brown, DD Brown, NM Buchanan, CC Buikema, A Bulik, T Bulten, HJ Buonanno, A Buskulic, D Buy, C Byer, RL Cadonati, L Cagnoli, G Cahillane, C Bustillo, JC Callister, T Calloni, E Camp, JB Cannon, KC Cao, J Capano, CD Capocasa, E Carbognani, F Caride, S Diaz, JC Casentini, C Caudill, S Cavaglià, M Cavalier, F Cavalieri, R Cella, G Cepeda, CB Baiardi, LC Cerretani, G Cesarini, E Chakraborty, R Chalermsongsak, T Chamberlin, SJ Chan, M Chao, S Charlton, P Chassande-Mottin, E Chen, HY Chen, Y Cheng, C Chincarini, A Chiummo, A Cho, HS Cho, M Chow, JH Christensen, N Chu, Q Chua, S Chung, S Ciani, G Clara, F Clark, JA Cleva, F Coccia, E Cohadon, P-F Colla, A Collette, CG Cominsky, L Constancio Jr., M Conte, A Conti, L Cook, D Corbitt, TR Cornish, N Corsi, A Cortese, S Costa, CA Coughlin, MW Coughlin, SB Coulon, J-P Countryman, ST Couvares, P Cowan, EE Coward, DM Cowart, MJ Coyne, DC Coyne, R Craig, K Creighton, JDE Cripe, J Crowder, SG Cumming, A Cunningham, L Cuoco, E Canton, TD Danilishin, SL D’Antonio, S Danzmann, K Darman, NS Dattilo, V Dave, I Daveloza, HP Davier, M Davies, GS Daw, EJ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3780-5430 Day, R De, S DeBra, D Debreczeni, G Degallaix, J Laurentis, MD Deléglise, S Pozzo, WD Denker, T Dent, T Dereli, H Dergachev, V Rosa, RD DeRosa, RT DeSalvo, R Dhurandhar, S Díaz, MC Fiore, LD Giovanni, MD Lieto, AD Pace, SD Palma, ID Virgilio, AD Dojcinoski, G Dolique, V Donovan, F Dooley, KL Doravari, S Douglas, R Downes, TP Drago, M Drever, RWP Driggers, JC Du, Z Ducrot, M Dwyer, SE Edo, TB https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9828-028X Edwards, MC Effler, A Eggenstein, H-B Ehrens, P Eichholz, J Eikenberry, SS Engels, W Essick, RC Etzel, T Evans, M Evans, TM Everett, R Factourovich, M Fafone, V Fair, H Fairhurst, S Fan, X Fang, Q Farinon, S Farr, B Farr, WM Favata, M Fays, M Fehrmann, H Fejer, MM Ferrante, I Ferreira, EC Ferrini, F Fidecaro, F Fiori, I Fiorucci, D Fisher, RP Flaminio, R Fletcher, M Fong, H Fournier, J-D Franco, S Frasca, S Frasconi, F Frei, Z Freise, A Frey, R Frey, V Fricke, TT Fritschel, P Frolov, VV Fulda, P Fyffe, M Gabbard, HAG Gair, JR Gammaitoni, L Gaonkar, SG Garufi, F Gatto, A Gaur, G Gehrels, N Gemme, G Gendre, B Genin, E Gennai, A George, J Gergely, L Germain, V Ghosh, A Ghosh, S Giaime, JA Giardina, KD Giazotto, A Gill, K Glaefke, A Goetz, E Goetz, R Gondan, L González, G Castro, JMG Gopakumar, A Gordon, NA Gorodetsky, ML Gossan, SE Gosselin, M Gouaty, R Graef, C Graff, PB Granata, M Grant, A Gras, S Gray, C Greco, G Green, AC Groot, P Grote, H Grunewald, S Guidi, GM Guo, X Gupta, A Gupta, MK Gushwa, KE Gustafson, EK Gustafson, R Hacker, JJ Hall, BR Hall, ED Hammond, G Haney, M Hanke, MM Hanks, J Hanna, C Hannam, MD Hanson, J Hardwick, T Harms, J Harry, 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Oliver, M Oppermann, P Oram, RJ O’Reilly, B O’Shaughnessy, R Ottaway, DJ Ottens, RS Overmier, H Owen, BJ Pai, A Pai, SA Palamos, JR Palashov, O Palomba, C Pal-Singh, A Pan, H Pankow, C Pannarale, F Pant, BC Paoletti, F Paoli, A Papa, MA Paris, HR Parker, W Pascucci, D Pasqualetti, A Passaquieti, R Passuello, D Patricelli, B Patrick, Z Pearlstone, BL Pedraza, M Pedurand, R Pekowsky, L Pele, A Penn, S Perreca, A Phelps, M Piccinni, O Pichot, M Piergiovanni, F Pierro, V Pillant, G Pinard, L Pinto, IM Pitkin, M Poggiani, R Popolizio, P Porter, EK Post, A Powell, J Prasad, J Predoi, V Premachandra, SS Prestegard, T Price, LR Prijatelj, M Principe, M Privitera, S Prodi, GA Prokhorov, L Puncken, O Punturo, M Puppo, P Pürrer, M Qi, H Qin, J Quetschke, V Quintero, EA Quitzow-James, R Raab, FJ Rabeling, DS Radkins, H Raffai, P Raja, S Rakhmanov, M Rapagnani, P Raymond, V Razzano, M Re, V Read, J Reed, CM Regimbau, T Rei, L Reid, S Reitze, DH Rew, H Reyes, SD Ricci, F Riles, K Robertson, NA 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Stephens, BC Stevenson, S Stone, R Strain, KA Straniero, N Stratta, G Strauss, NA Strigin, S Sturani, R Stuver, AL Summerscales, TZ Sun, L Sutton, PJ Swinkels, BL Szczepańczyk, MJ Tacca, M Talukder, D Tanner, DB Tápai, M Tarabrin, SP Taracchini, A Taylor, R Theeg, T Thirugnanasambandam, MP Thomas, EG Thomas, M Thomas, P Thorne, KA Thorne, KS Thrane, E Tiwari, S Tiwari, V Tokmakov, KV Tomlinson, C Tonelli, M Torres, CV Torrie, CI Töyrä, D Travasso, F Traylor, G Trifirò, D Tringali, MC Trozzo, L Tse, M Turconi, M Tuyenbayev, D Ugolini, D Unnikrishnan, CS Urban, AL Usman, SA Vahlbruch, H Vajente, G Valdes, G Vallisneri, M Bakel, NV Beuzekom, MV Brand, JFJVD Broeck, CVD Vander-Hyde, DC Schaaf, LVD Heijningen, JVV Veggel, AAV Vardaro, M Vass, S Vasúth, M Vaulin, R Vecchio, A Vedovato, G Veitch, J Veitch, PJ Venkateswara, K Verkindt, D Vetrano, F Viceré, A Vinciguerra, S Vine, DJ Vinet, J-Y Vitale, S Vo, T Vocca, H Vorvick, C Voss, D Vousden, WD Vyatchanin, SP Wade, AR Wade, LE Wade, M 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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information:	© 2016 The American Astronomical Society. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
Keywords:	black holes; gravitational waves; stars: massive
Dates:	Accepted: 19 September 2016 Published (online): 30 November 2016 Published: 10 December 2016
Institution:	The University of Sheffield
Academic Units:	The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > Department of Physics and Astronomy (Sheffield)
Depositing User:	Symplectic Sheffield
Date Deposited:	02 Nov 2017 16:15
Last Modified:	02 Nov 2017 16:15
Published Version:	https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8205/833/1/L1
Status:	Published
Publisher:	American Astronomical Society
Refereed:	Yes
Identification Number:	10.3847/2041-8205/833/1/L1
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID):	oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:123348

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THE RATE OF BINARY BLACK HOLE MERGERS INFERRED FROM ADVANCED LIGO OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING GW150914

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