Blind Thrusting, Surface Folding and the Development of Geological Structure in the Mw 6.3 2015 Pishan (China) Earthquake

The relationship between individual earthquakes and the longer-term growth of topography and of geological structures is not fully understood, but is key to our ability to make use of topographic and geological datasets in the contexts of seismic hazard and wider-scale tectonics. Here we investigate those relationships at an active fold-and-thrust belt in the southwest Tarim Basin, Central Asia. We use seismic waveforms and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) to determine the fault parameters and slip distribution of the 2015 Mw 6.3 Pishan earthquake - a blind, reverse-faulting event dipping towards the Tibetan Plateau. Our earthquake mechanism and location correspond closely to a fault mapped independently by seismic reflection, indicating that the earthquake was on a pre-existing ramp fault over a depth range of ˜9–13 km. However, the geometry of folding in the overlying fluvial terraces cannot be fully explained by repeated coseismic slip in events such as the 2015 earthquake nor by the early postseismic motion shown in our interferograms; a key role in growth of the topography must be played by other mechanisms. The earthquake occurred at the Tarim-Tibet boundary, with the unusually low dip of 21° . We use our source models from Pishan and a 2012 event to argue that the Tarim Basin crust deforms only by brittle failure on faults whose effective coefficient of friction is ≤0.05±0.025. In contrast, most of the Tibetan crust undergoes ductile deformation, with a viscosity of order 10²⁰–10²² Pa s. This contrast in rheologies provides an explanation for the low dip of the earthquake fault plane.