Butt, EW, Turnock, S, Rigby, R et al. (7 more authors) (2017) Global and regional trends in particulate air pollution and attributable health burden over the past 50 years. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (10). 104017. ISSN 1748-9326
Abstract
Long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5, mass of particles with an aerodynamic dry diameter of < 2.5 μm) is a major risk factor to the global burden of disease. Previous studies have focussed on present day or future health burdens attributed to ambient PM2.5. Few studies have estimated changes in PM2.5 and attributable health burdens over the last few decades, a period where air quality has changed rapidly. Here we used the HadGEM3-UKCA coupled chemistry-climate model, integrated exposure-response relationships, demographic and background disease data to provide the first estimate of the changes in global and regional ambient PM2.5 concentrations and attributable health burdens over the period 1960 to 2009. Over this period, global mean population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations increased by 38%, dominated by increases in China and India. Global attributable deaths increased by 89% to 124% over the period 1960 to 2009, dominated by large increases in China and India. Population growth and ageing contributed mostly to the increases in attributable deaths in China and India, highlighting the importance of demographic trends. In contrast, decreasing PM2.5 concentrations and background disease dominated the reduction in attributable health burden in Europe and the United States. Our results shed light on how future projected trends in demographics and uncertainty in the exposure–response relationship may provide challenges for future air quality policy in Asia.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) 2017, The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/]. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC NE/J009822/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 23 Oct 2017 15:56 |
Last Modified: | 06 Jul 2018 10:19 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa87be |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:122907 |