Fodor, N, Challinor, A orcid.org/0000-0002-8551-6617, Droutsas, I orcid.org/0000-0002-5123-3379 et al. (4 more authors) (2017) Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production. Plant and Cell Physiology, 58 (11). pp. 1833-1847. ISSN 0032-0781
Abstract
Increasing global CO₂ emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO₂ world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | high CO₂; photosynthesis; crop production; land use; climate change modeling |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Biological Sciences (Leeds) > School of Biology (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number BBSRC BB/N004914/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 04 Sep 2017 11:50 |
Last Modified: | 23 Jun 2023 22:35 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Oxford University Press |
Identification Number: | 10.1093/pcp/pcx141 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:120764 |