Johnston, R.J., Pattie, C.J. orcid.org/0000-0003-4578-178X, Jones, K. et al. (1 more author) (2017) Was the 2016 United States' presidential contest a deviating election? Continuity and change in the electoral map – or ‘Plus ça change, plus ç’est la mème géographie". Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties, 27 (4). pp. 369-388. ISSN 1745-7289
Abstract
Several commentators before and after the 2016 US presidential election claimed that it involved a “redrawing of the country’s electoral map”, which in the context of the Key/Pomper classification of elections suggested that it was a deviating election, and potentially a critical election heralding a realignment. Analysis of the geography of the result of the 2016 contest, however, indicates considerable continuity at the county scale: the main trend was an increase in the spatial polarization of the US electorate. Trump not only performed best in 2016 in those counties where Republican party candidates had done well at the previous nine elections, he also increased the Republican share of the votes cast in many of them relative to his performance in counties where the Democratic party candidates were strong then. The main deviations from this trend were in counties with large Black and/or Hispanic populations and those with relatively large numbers of well-qualified, well-paid adults. It was not a potential critical election, therefore, but a continuation of a sequence now nearly four decades old.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2017 Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. This is an author produced version of a paper subsequently published in Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Politics and International Relations (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 11 Aug 2017 09:11 |
Last Modified: | 14 Nov 2023 16:30 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2017.1354004 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/17457289.2017.1354004 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:120011 |