Impact of HIV drug resistance on HIV/AIDS associated mortality, new infections and antiretroviral therapy program costs in sub-Saharan Africa

To inform the level of attention to be given by antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), we used an individual-level model to estimate its impact on future AIDS deaths, HIV-incidence and ART program costs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for a range of program situations. We applied this to SSA through the Spectrum-Goals model. In a situation in which current levels of pre-treatment HIVDR are over 10% (mean 15%), 16% of AIDS deaths (890,000 deaths) , 9% of new infections (450,000) and 8% ($6.5 billion) of ART program costs in SSA in 2016-2030 will be attributable to HIVDR.