Breeze, P. orcid.org/0000-0002-4189-8676, Squires, H. orcid.org/0000-0002-2776-4014, Chilcott, J. orcid.org/0000-0003-1231-7817 et al. (5 more authors) (2016) A statistical model to describe longitudinal and correlated metabolic risk factors: the Whitehall II prospective study. Journal of Public Health, 38 (4). pp. 679-687. ISSN 1741-3842
Abstract
Background Novel epidemiology models are required to link correlated variables over time, especially haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and body mass index (BMI) for diabetes prevention policy analysis. This article develops an epidemiology model to correlate metabolic risk factor trajectories. Method BMI, fasting plasma glucose, 2-h glucose, HbA1c, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were analysed over 16 years from 8150 participants of the Whitehall II prospective cohort study. Latent growth curve modelling was employed to simultaneously estimate trajectories for multiple metabolic risk factors allowing for variation between individuals. A simulation model compared simulated outcomes with the observed data. Results The model identified that the change in BMI was associated with changes in glycaemia, total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure. The statistical analysis quantified associations among the longitudinal risk factor trajectories. Growth in latent glycaemia was positively correlated with systolic blood pressure and negatively correlated with HDL cholesterol. The goodness-of-fit analysis indicates reasonable fit to the data. Conclusions This is the first statistical model that estimates trajectories of metabolic risk factors simultaneously for diabetes to predict joint correlated risk factor trajectories. This can inform comparisons of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions, which aim to modify metabolic risk factors.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | diabetes; epidemiology |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield) > ScHARR - Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Management School (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 21 Mar 2017 16:29 |
Last Modified: | 21 Mar 2017 16:29 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdv160 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Oxford University Press (OUP): Policy B - Oxford Open Option D |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1093/pubmed/fdv160 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:113769 |