Freeman, Mark Charles orcid.org/0000-0003-4521-2720 and Groom, B (2016) How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. pp. 152-168. ISSN 0095-0696
Abstract
Theoretical arguments for using a term structure of social discount rates (SDR) that declines with the time horizon have influenced government guidelines in the US and Europe. The certainty equivalent discount rate that often underpins this guidance embodies uncertainty in the primitives of the SDR, such as growth. For distant time horizons the probability distributions of these primitives are ambiguous and the certainty equivalent itself is uncertain. Yet, if a limited set of characteristics of the unknown probability distributions can be agreed upon, ‘sharp’ upper and lower bounds can be defined for the certainty-equivalent SDR. Unfortunately, even with considerable agreement on these features, these bounds are widely spread for horizons beyond 75 years. So while estimates of the present value of intergenerational impacts, including the social cost of carbon, can be bounded in the presence of this ambiguity, they typically remain so imprecise as to provide little practical guidance.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2016, Elsevier Inc. This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Declining discount rates,Distribution uncertainty,Social Cost of Carbon |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Social Sciences (York) > The York Management School |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 08 Feb 2017 12:40 |
Last Modified: | 23 Jan 2025 00:09 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2016.06.004 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.jeem.2016.06.004 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:112082 |