FRAX (R): Prediction of Major Osteoporotic Fractures in Women from the General Population: The OPUS Study

Purposes: The aim of this study was to analyse how well FRAXH predicts the risk of major osteoporotic and vertebral fractures over 6 years in postmenopausal women from general population.

Patients and methods: The OPUS study was conducted in European women aged above 55 years, recruited in 5 centers from random population samples and followed over 6 years. The population for this study consisted of 1748 women (mean age 74.2 years) with information on incident fractures. 742 (43.1%) had a prevalent fracture; 769 (44%) and 155 (8.9%) of them received an antiosteoporotic treatment before and during the study respectively. We compared FRAXH performance with and without bone mineral density (BMD) using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) c-statistical analysis with ORs and areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUCs) and net reclassification improvement (NRI).

Results: 85 (4.9%) patients had incident major fractures over 6 years. FRAXH with and without BMD predicted these fractures with an AUC of 0.66 and 0.62 respectively. The AUC were 0.60, 0.66, 0.69 for history of low trauma fracture alone, age and femoral neck (FN) BMD and combination of the 3 clinical risk factors, respectively. FRAXH with and without BMD predicted incident radiographic vertebral fracture (n = 65) with an AUC of 0.67 and 0.65 respectively. NRI analysis showed a significant improvement in risk assignment when BMD is added to FRAXH.

Conclusions: This study shows that FRAXH with BMD and to a lesser extent also without FN BMD predict major osteoporotic and vertebral fractures in the general population.