Goussen, Benoit Regis Marc orcid.org/0000-0001-7204-7981, Price, Oliver R., Rendal, Cecilie et al. (1 more author) (2016) Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors. Scientific Reports. 36004. p. 36004. ISSN 2045-2322
Abstract
Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2016, The Authors. |
Keywords: | Communication and replication,Ecological modelling,Environmental impact,Population Dynamics |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Environment and Geography (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 27 Oct 2016 15:23 |
Last Modified: | 28 Dec 2024 00:07 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/srep36004 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/srep36004 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:106644 |