Trigg, MA orcid.org/0000-0002-8412-9332, Birch, CE orcid.org/0000-0001-9384-2810, Neal, JC orcid.org/0000-0001-5793-9594 et al. (16 more authors) (2016) The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (9). 094014. ISSN 1748-9326
Abstract
Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. |
Keywords: | Flood hazard; Flood risk; Africa; Global Flood Models |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Civil Engineering (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 08 Sep 2016 11:55 |
Last Modified: | 12 Dec 2024 14:30 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:104489 |
Commentary/Response Threads
- Trigg, MA, Birch, CE, Neal, JC, Bates, PD, Smith, A, Sampson, CC, Yamazaki, D, Hirabayashi, Y, Pappenberger, F, Dutra, E, Ward, PJ, Winsemius, HC, Salamon, P, Dottori, F, Rudari, R, Kappes, MS, Simpson, AL, Hadzilacos, G and Fewtrell, TJ The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis. (deposited 08 Sep 2016 11:55) [Currently Displayed]
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