MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717, Price, Christopher and Wood, Andrew James orcid.org/0000-0002-6119-852X (2016) Weighing the Fog of War:Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the battle of the Dogger Bank. Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history. pp. 80-91. ISSN 1940-1906
Abstract
The application of scientific methods to historical situations is restricted by the existence of a single outcome with no possibility of repetition. However, new computational methods make quantitative historical analysis nevertheless possible. We apply methods of approximate Bayesian computation to simulate a naval engagement of the First World War, the Battle of the Dogger Bank. We demonstrate that the battle’s outcome was highly unlikely, with significant implications both for subsequent actions and for historical understanding. Dogger Bank exemplifies our view that Bayesian methods offer historians the tool they need to grapple with the evolving probabilities of historical events, giving a sound scientific basis for counterfactual history, and opening up a wealth of possibilities for analysis.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details. Embargo period: 18 months |
Keywords: | Battle of the Dogger Bank,approximate Bayesian computation (ABC),combat modeling,military simulation,naval warfare |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Mathematics (York) The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Biology (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 26 Aug 2016 09:37 |
Last Modified: | 21 Nov 2024 00:31 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2015.1072071 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/01615440.2015.1072071 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:104129 |