A conceptual approach for estimating resilience to fuel shocks

We examine a conceptual approach to the estimation of resilience of transport systems to fuel shocks, i.e. a severe and long lasting reduction in the availability of fuel for motorised transport. Adaptive capacity is an element of resilience and is defined in the paper. There is currently no indicator of adaptive capacity of individuals in small geographies sensitive to a variety of policy measures, such as those affecting fitness, obesity, bicycle availability and bicycle infrastructure, whose impacts (at least in the short term) are on a smaller scale than large-scale land use and urban morphology change. We propose a conceptual approach for designing a method to quantify this indicator. The indicator shows the proportion of the population of areas who would have the capacity to commute to work principally by bicycle or walking following the shock. It assesses capacity grounded in current data and avoids as far as possible the need for speculation about the future. We believe this makes progress towards producing a good indicator with relatively un-controversial, transparent simplifying assumptions. The indicator can compare the resilience of different areas and can be updated over time.