Jones, J.M. orcid.org/0000-0003-2892-8647, Gille, ST.., Goosse, H. et al. (21 more authors) (2016) Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate. Nature Climate Change, 6. pp. 917-926. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. However, most observed trends are not unusual when compared with Antarctic paleoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability likely overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © Nature Publishing Group, 2016. This is an author produced version of a paper subsequently published in Nature Climate Change. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Geography (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 06 Jul 2016 11:43 |
Last Modified: | 14 Apr 2017 03:33 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/nclimate3103 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:101828 |