Rippke, U, Ramirez-Villegas, J, Jarvis, A et al. (6 more authors) (2016) Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture. Nature Climate Change, 6 (6). pp. 605-609. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
Climate change is projected to constitute a significant threat to food security if no adaptation actions are taken. Transformation of agricultural systems, for example switching crop types or moving out of agriculture, is projected to be necessary in some cases. However, little attention has been paid to the timing of these transformations. Here, we develop a temporal uncertainty framework using the CMIP5 ensemble to assess when and where cultivation of key crops in sub-Saharan Africa becomes unviable. We report potential transformational changes for all major crops during the twenty-first century, as climates shift and areas become unsuitable. For most crops, however, transformation is limited to small pockets (<15% of area), and only for beans, maize and banana is transformation more widespread (â 1/430% area for maize and banana, 60% for beans). We envisage three overlapping adaptation phases to enable projected transformational changes: an incremental adaptation phase focused on improvements to crops and management, a preparatory phase that establishes appropriate policies and enabling environments, and a transformational adaptation phase in which farmers substitute crops, explore alternative livelihoods strategies, or relocate. To best align policies with production triggers for no-regret actions, monitoring capacities to track farming systems as well as climate are needed.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2016, Author(s). This is an author produced version of a paper published in Nature Climate Change. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 07 Oct 2016 11:44 |
Last Modified: | 05 Nov 2017 16:20 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2947 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/nclimate2947 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:101214 |