A local analysis of ethnic group population trends and projections for the UK

Projections of the UK’s ethnic populations from 2001 to 2051 show significant future change. Groups outside the White British majority will increase in size and share, not only in core areas but throughout the country. Ethnic minorities will shift out of deprived local authorities and into less deprived ones, while the White distribution remains stable. The share of the Mixed group population in the most deprived quintile (Q5) of local authorities reduces from 26 to 19%, while its share in the least deprived quintile (Q1) increases from 22 to 29%. The corresponding shifts for Asian groups are from 25 to 18% for Q5 and from 9 to 20% for the Q1. For Black groups the Q5 quintile sees a decrease from 54 to 39% while the Q1 sees an increase from 7 to 19%. There are shifts to local authorities with lower ethnic minority concentrations by Mixed, Asian and Black populations from local authorities with high ethnic concentrations, while the White, Chinese and Other group distributions remain in 2051 as they were in 2001. So, ethnic minority groups will be less segregated from the rest of the population in 2051 than in 2001. Indices of Dissimilarity between each group and the rest of the population fall by a third over the projection period. The UK in 2051 will be a more ethnically diverse society than in 2001.