Rees, PH orcid.org/0000-0002-4276-9091, Wohland, P, Norman, P orcid.org/0000-0002-6211-1625 et al. (1 more author) (2012) Ethnic population projections for the UK, 2001-2051. Journal of Population Research, 29 (1). pp. 45-89. ISSN 1443-2447
Abstract
This paper reports on projections of the United Kingdom’s ethnic group populations for 2001–2051. For the years 2001–2007 we estimate fertility rates, survival probabilities, internal migration probabilities and international migration flows for 16 ethnic groups and 355 UK areas. We make assumptions about future component rates, probabilities and flows and feed these into our projection model. This model is a cohort-component model specified for single years of age to 100+. To handle this large state space, we employed a bi-regional model. We implement four projections: (1) a benchmark projection that uses the component inputs for 2001; (2) a trend projection where assumptions beyond 2007 are adjusted to those in the UK 2008-based National Population Projections (NPP); (3) a projection that modifies the NPP assumptions and (4) a projection that uses a different emigration assumption. The projected UK population ranges between a low of 63 millions in 2051 under the first projection to a high of 79 million in the third projection. Under all projections ethnic composition continues to change: the White British, White Irish and Black Caribbean groups experience the slowest growth and lose population share; the Other White and Mixed groups to experience relative increases in share; South Asian groups grow strongly as do the Chinese and Other Ethnic groups. The ethnic minority share of the population increases from 13% (2001) to 25% in the trend projection but to only 20% under our modified emigration projection. However, what is certain is that the UK can look forward to be becoming a more diverse nation by mid-century.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Keywords: | Ethnic groups; Population projections; United Kingdom; Ethnic composition; Bi-regional model; Cohort-component model |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 25 Aug 2016 16:10 |
Last Modified: | 04 Nov 2016 07:02 |
Published Version: | http://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-011-9076-z |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Verlag |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s12546-011-9076-z |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:100226 |