Seismic risk management: A system-based perspective

Seismic risk analysis is fraught with complexity, ambiguity and uncertainty which pose critical challenges in assessing, modeling and management. Emergent complexity of earthquake impacts and uncertain nature of information commonly involved in assessment process necessitate establishing a risk management system to address the risk in a reliable and realistic way. The study was launched to review and discuss appropriate risk assessment methods for different seismic applications. The characteristics of different risk assessment methods were compared focusing on systemic challenges of analysis including complexity and uncertainty. Different alternatives of modeling systems are proposed, compared and discussed according to their operational appropriateness with the focus on systemic challenges of analysis including complexity and uncertainty. Nevertheless, selection of specific risk assessment approach requires in-depth understanding of the multidimensional aspects of risk, scope and objective of problem, availability of data and type of input-output involved with decision-making process.