Demand for rail travel and the effects of external factors

This paper estimates an enhanced model for forecasting railway demand and to explain the high levels of growth experienced in the 1990’s in Great Britain. The problems with previous forecasting methods and research findings are outlined. The key driver of demand is found to be GDP, but variations in car journey times, fuel costs, car ownership levels, population and a post-privatisation time trend have also made significant contributions. The estimation makes use of two large data sets obtained from recorded ticket sales and from travel surveys. The estimated models are in use within the rail industry in Great Britain and have been able to successfully predict rail demand levels experienced since 1998.