Can China’s carbon intensity constraint policies improve carbon emission performance? Evidence from regional carbon emissions

Carbon Intensity Constraint Policies (CICPs) are vital for addressing climate change challenges and advancing sustainable development. Since 2010, China has rolled out three five-year CICPs. However, there is limited understanding of their impact on carbon emission performance (CEP). Addressing this, this study pioneers the exploration of the CICP's impact on China's CEP. Drawing from government intervention and green paradox theories, this study highlights a concerning scenario: local governments achieve emission targets via excessive intervention. For deeper insights, this study melds the overall technology frontier concept with a non-radial, non-angle directional distance function, introducing a novel efficiency model rooted in the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. This offers a CEP measure across 30 Chinese provincial regions from 2002 to 2019. Using the quasi-difference-in-differences (quasi-DID) and moderated mediation models, this study ascertains the presence of the green paradox, uncovers its reasons, and suggests mitigation strategies. The results indicate that high government intervention diminishes CEP. This negative effect intensifies under greater regional fiscal pressure. Alarmingly, local authorities' eagerness to meet targets shows a counterproductive, inverted N-shaped trend regarding CICPs' time-based influence on regional CEP. Moreover, the impact varies based on regional economic development levels and stages. This study has ensured the robustness of the findings via parallel trend tests, parallel exclusion policies, a strengthened quasi-DID framework, and diverse control variable configurations. This study underscores the need for more balanced government intervention. It offers valuable policy insights, guiding China's upcoming CICP phase to realize the ambition of peaking carbon by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.