Extreme rainfall in East Africa, October 2019–January 2020 and context under future climate change

Abstract

The 2019 October–December rains over East Africa were one of the wettest seasons on record, with many locations receiving more than double the climatological rainfall, leading to floods and landslides. The wet conditions were associated with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, with warm sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean. Seasonal forecasts correctly predicted above average rainfall during the season. Climate model projections suggest that such events may become more frequent under future climate change.

Metadata

Authors/Creators:

Wainwright, C.M.
Finney, D.L. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3334-6935
Kilavi, M.
Black, E.
Marsham, J.H. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3219-8472

© 2020 The Authors. Weather published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

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