Achieving Emission Reductions without Furthering Social Inequality: Lessons from the 2007 economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic

To meet global climate goals, such as limiting global warming to 1.5° Celsius, urgent and substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed. From a consumption-based perspective, such measures include a radical reduction of emissions from private households. Despite this urgency, attention must be paid to achieve such reductions without furthering social inequalities. To address these issues, this research looks at consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions of UK households longitudinally, with a particular focus on changes that occurred after the 2007/08 economic crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns. Analysing these two events allows us to learn how emissions from different social cohorts are impacted by external shocks, providing a learning for policy. We find significant (p < 0.05) differences in the relationships between income and emissions of some age and income groups, as well as substantial descriptive differences between how age and income groups are impacted at a product-level. Importantly, we also find that despite existing levels of carbon inequality, substantial emission reductions are needed for all social cohorts assessed. However, to avoid further increasing existing inequalities and to make policies more effective, we propose interventions targeted at specific social cohorts. While an income reduction may reduce emissions of high-income households, increased access to high quality housing and public services may help reduce emissions of low-income households, whose emissions are already decoupled from income. Finally, age and income-specific interventions targeting specific consumption categories may reduce the impact of rebound effects, as well as reduce emission overall.