Factors affecting perceptions in transport – A deep dive into the motorbike ban in Hanoi, Vietnam

The dependence on motorbikes has contributed to traffic problems in Hanoi, Vietnam. Policymakers have considered a controversial ban on nonelectric motorbikes in parts of the city in an effort to reduce congestion and pollution. However, understanding of individual perceptions on critical transport policies, such as this potential ban is lacking, especially in the Global South, with implications for evidence-based policy making. This paper presents the results of some exploratory data analysis and a machine learning application using a travel survey recently conducted in Hanoi. It aims to understand how residents perceive a potential motorbike ban, their perceptions of different mobility modes, as well as their future plans for mobility if motorbikes are banned. This data-driven analysis of policy scenarios shows that awareness of the potential ban, distance to public transport, and individual transport modal choice determine the acceptability of the proposed motorbike ban and its likely success. It also shows that policymakers in Hanoi should also consider citizens’ plans for future vehicle ownership, as the analysis results suggest that cars are likely to replace motorbikes if the ban is implemented.