Rage and the Machines? Force Mechanization and Violence against Civilians

There is an ongoing discussion regarding the role of mechanized forces in counterinsurgency warfare. Proponents note that they boost counterinsurgents’ ability to fight while critics point out that they diminish their ability to gather information. This note adds to this discussion by focusing on violence against civilians, an outcome that theory suggests should be affected by mechanization via both of these channels. Results from quantitative analyses employing new data on mechanization and covering the period 1989–2016 indicate that mechanization is unrelated to the number of civilians killed by government forces but positively associated with that killed by rebels. These results are in line with the idea that mechanization increases counterinsurgents’ fighting but decreases their information-gathering abilities. By offering quantitative evidence that mechanized forces have a place in modern counterinsurgency, these results contribute to both academics’ and practitioners’ understanding of armed intrastate conflict.