Brexit, beliefs about immigration, and satisfaction with democracy

We examine the relationships among beliefs about immigration, vote choice, and satisfaction with democracy against the backdrop of the Brexit vote. Utilizing panel data across four waves—two pre- and two post-referendum—we estimate the effect of vote choice on satisfaction with democracy. Given the salience of beliefs about immigration before and during the campaign, we further examine the relationship between such beliefs and satisfaction and if that relationship is altered by the referendum's outcome. We find negative beliefs were associated with lower levels of satisfaction before the referendum but that the reverse is true once Leave won. Given the nature of our data, we are reasonably confident we have identified a causal impact on election outcome and these changes. Finally, we demonstrate that vote choice mediates the relationship between beliefs about immigration and satisfaction, suggesting a larger relationship between policy-relevant attitudes and satisfaction than is often contemplated.