Combining resource population dynamics into impact assessments of native and invasive species under abiotic change

Predicting future changes in interspecific interactions continues to be a challenge for environmental managers. This uncertainty is exacerbated by increasing biological invasions and the likelihood that the strength of trophic interactions among native species will change. Abiotic variables influence predator resource utilisation and abundance as well as resource population dynamics. Currently no practical metric or impact prediction methodology can adequately account for all of these factors. Functional Response (FR) methods successfully incorporate resource utilisation rates with regards to resource density to quantify consumer-resource interactions under varying abiotic contexts. This approach has been extended to create the Relative Impact Potential (RIP) metric to compare invader vs native impact. However, this does not incorporate resource abundance dynamics, which clearly can also change with abiotic context. We propose a Resource Reproduction Qualifier (RRQ) be incorporated into the RIP metric, whereby RRQ is the reciprocal of the fraction or proportion to which reproduction (e.g. of prey species) changes under an environmental context. This modifies the RIP score to give a more informative RIPq value, which may be contextually increased or decreased. We empirically demonstrate the utility and benefits of including RRQ into impact potential predictions with an invasive species (the lionfish Pterois volitans) and two European native species (shanny fish Lipophyris pholis and lesser spotted dogfish Scyliorhinus canicula) under different abiotic contexts. Despite high FR and abundance, lionfish impacts were reduced by increasing prey recruitment at higher temperatures, however, remained high impact overall. Shanny predatory impact increased with increasing temperature and was exacerbated by decreasing prey fecundity. Two population increase scenarios (50% and 80%) were assessed for lesser spotted dogfish under predicted temperature increases, preying upon E. marinus. Both scenarios indicated heightened predatory impact with increasing predator FR and decreasing prey fecundity. Our new metric demonstrates that accounting for resource reproductive responses to abiotic drivers, in tandem with the consumer per capita and abundance responses, better estimate the magnitudes of predicted inter-species interactions and ecological impacts. This can be used in stock assessments and predictions, as well as invasive species risk assessments in a comprehensive yet user-friendly manner.