Marshall, L.R., Schmidt, A., Johnson, J.S. orcid.org/0000-0002-4587-6722 et al. (4 more authors) (2021) Unknown eruption source parameters cause large uncertainty in historical volcanic radiative forcing reconstructions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126 (13). e2020JD033578. ISSN 2169-897X
Abstract
Reconstructions of volcanic aerosol radiative forcing are required to understand past climate variability. Currently, reconstructions of pre-20th century volcanic forcing are derived from sulfate concentrations measured in polar ice cores, mainly using a relationship between the average ice-sheet sulfate deposition and stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden based on a single explosive eruption—the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Here we estimate volcanic radiative forcings and associated uncertainty ranges from ice-core sulfate records of eight of the largest bipolar deposition signals in the last 2,500 years using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble of aerosol-climate model simulations of explosive eruptions. Extensive sampling of different combinations of eruption source parameters using the emulators reveals that a very wide range of eruptions in different seasons with different sulfur dioxide emissions, eruption latitudes, and emission altitudes produce ice-sheet sulfate deposition consistent with ice-core records. Consequently, we find a large range in the volcanic forcing that can be directly attributed to the unknown eruption source parameters. We estimate that the uncertainty in volcanic forcing caused by many plausible eruption realizations leads to uncertainties in the global mean surface cooling of around 1°C for the largest unidentified historical eruptions. Our emulators are available online (https://cemac.github.io/volcanic-forcing-deposition) where eruption realizations for given ice-sheet sulfate depositions can be explored.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | volcanic radiative forcing; statistical emulation; volcanic aerosol; sulfate deposition; volcanic eruptions |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Mathematics and Statistics (Sheffield) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Natural Environment Research Council NE/P013406/1 Natural Environment Research Council NE/J024252/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 18 Jan 2022 12:24 |
Last Modified: | 18 Jan 2022 12:24 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2020jd033578 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:182661 |