The carbon sequestration potential of Scottish native woodland

Woodland creation sequesters carbon and contributes to climate change mitigation. Most previous assessments of the carbon sequestration of new UK woodlands have focused on tree planting, little is known about the scale of the potential contribution from natural regeneration. We used a Potential for Native Woodland Model to make the first estimate of carbon sequestration by large-scale native woodland expansion through natural regeneration in Scotland. We estimate native woodland could expand to cover an additional 3.9 million hectares of the Scottish uplands removing an average of 6.96 million tons of CO2 per year. This represents 35%–45% of the carbon removal target for UK woodlands that has been suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. Expanding woodlands to just 10% of this potential would double existing native woodland and could provide a multitude of benefits, including carbon removal equivalent to approximately 4% of this target. The next few decades are critical in terms of climate change mitigation, therefore further work is now required to improve these estimates and better constrain this potentially large contribution.