Peace, A.H., Carslaw, K.S., Lee, L.A. orcid.org/0000-0002-8029-6328 et al. (4 more authors)
(2020)
Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise.
Environmental Research Letters, 15 (9).
0940a6.
ISSN 1748-9326
Abstract
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are predicted to decline sharply throughout the 21st century, in line with climate change and air quality mitigation policies, causing a near-term warming of climate that will impact our trajectory towards 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. However, the persistent uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing limits our understanding of how much the global mean temperature will respond to near-term reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. We quantify the model and scenario uncertainty in global mean aerosol radiative forcing up to 2050 using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble for emission reduction scenarios consistent with three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We then use a simple climate model to translate the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing into uncertainty in global mean temperature projections, accounting additionally for the potential correlation of aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Near-term aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty alone causes an uncertainty window of around 5 years (2034–2039) on the projected year of exceeding a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures for a middle of the road emissions scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5). A correlation between aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity would increase the 1.5 °C exceedance window by many years. The results highlight the importance of quantifying aerosol radiative forcing and any relationship with climate sensitivity in climate models in order to reduce uncertainty in temperature projections.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) |
Keywords: | aerosols; climate; uncertainty; radiative; forcing |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Advanced Manufacturing Institute (Sheffield) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Natural Environment Research Council NE/P013406/1 Natural Environment Research Council NE/J024252/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 02 Jul 2021 15:18 |
Last Modified: | 02 Jul 2021 15:18 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/aba20c |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:175218 |
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