Naureen, G., Johansson, H., Iqbal, R. et al. (9 more authors) (2021) A surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan. Archives of Osteoporosis, 16. 34. ISSN 1862-3522
Abstract
Summary
A surrogate FRAX® model for Pakistan has been constructed using age-specific hip fracture rates for Indians living in Singapore and age-specific mortality rates from Pakistan.
Introduction
FRAX models are frequently requested for countries with little or no data on the incidence of hip fracture. In such circumstances, the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation have recommended the development of a surrogate FRAX model, based on country-specific mortality data but using fracture data from a country, usually within the region, where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country.
Objective
This paper describes the development and characteristics of a surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan.
Methods
The FRAX model used the ethnic-specific incidence of hip fracture in Indian men and women living in Singapore, combined with the death risk for Pakistan.
Results
The surrogate model gave somewhat lower 10-year fracture probabilities for men and women at all ages compared to the model for Indians from Singapore, reflecting a higher mortality risk in Pakistan. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (r ≥ 0.998) so that the use of the Pakistan model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 36,524 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in Pakistan, with a predicted increase by 214% to 114,820 in 2050.
Conclusion
The surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan provides an opportunity to determine fracture probability within the Pakistan population and help guide decisions about treatment.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2021. Open Access: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | FRAX; Fracture probability; Epidemiology; Hip fracture; Singaporean Indians; Surrogate; Pakistan |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Sheffield Teaching Hospitals |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 23 Mar 2021 12:52 |
Last Modified: | 23 Mar 2021 12:59 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s11657-021-00894-w |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:172397 |