Damon Matthews, H, Tokarska, KB, Rogelj, J et al. (7 more authors) (2021) An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget. Communications Earth & Environment, 2 (1). 7. ISSN 2662-4435
Abstract
The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2021. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) | ||||
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Institution: | The University of Leeds | ||||
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) | ||||
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Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications | ||||
Date Deposited: | 22 Jan 2021 16:54 | ||||
Last Modified: | 22 Jan 2021 16:54 | ||||
Status: | Published | ||||
Publisher: | Nature Research | ||||
Identification Number: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9 |