Predicting disease progression and poor outcomes in patients with moderately active rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review

Objectives: Access to biologic DMARDs for RA is often restricted to those with severe disease. This systematic review aimed to identify prognostic factors in patients with moderate disease activity who may be at risk of disease progression and poor clinical outcomes.

Methods: MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched (final search 22 September 2017), and data from patients with moderate disease [28-joint DAS (DAS28) >3.2–≤5.1] were included. Studies were evaluated according to the measure(s) of progression/poor outcome used: radiographic, disease activity or other indicators.

Results: The searches identified 274 publications, of which 30 were selected for data extraction. Fourteen studies were prioritized, because they specifically analysed patients with moderate RA. Nine studies reported radiographic progression outcomes for 3241 patients, three studies reported disease activity progression for 1516 patients, and two studies reported other relevant outcomes for 2094 patients. Prognostic factors with consistent evidence for progression/poor outcome prediction were as follows: DAS28 ≥ 4.2, the presence of anti-CCP antibodies, and power Doppler ultrasound score ≥1. Some predictors were specific to either disease activity or radiographic progression.

Conclusion: Several criteria used in standard clinical practice were identified that have the potential to inform the selection of patients with moderate RA who are at greater risk of a poor outcome. A combination of two or more of these factors might enhance their predictive potential. Further work is required to derive clinical decision rules incorporating these factors.